Emily Smith loves the spacious four-bedroom apartment she shares with her three friends in Somerville. The rent isn’t too bad, the location is convenient and the street is charming and friendly, like something out of “Mr. Roger’s Neighborhood,” she said.
It’s really a dream set up — except for one thing.
“I feel like the only gripe everyone has is just the way we have to heat the home in the winter,” she said.
Like one in five households in Massachusetts, Smith and her roommates rely on fuel oil. This winter, they’re wondering how they’ll afford it. As temperatures begin to cool down, prices continue to climb — as do many residents’ fears about how badly this heating season will upend their budgets.
In normal times, heating with fuel oil tends to be more expensive than heating with natural gas, which is the predominant form of home heating in the state. But these are not normal times in the global oil market.
Between the ongoing war with Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war, the price of some petroleum products, like fuel oil and diesel, have hit record highs. As a result, many households are staring down bank-breaking heating bills this winter.
As of late October, state data shows the average price of a gallon of heating oil is $6.23, which is up nearly 73% from last year. And typically, prices rise as the winter drags on.
“So [I’m] definitely very concerned, and I don’t really know what to do,” Smith said.
Two winters ago, the four roommates spent about $2,000 on heating oil. Last year, the total cost was closer to $3,000. This year — who even knows. It’ll depend on how cold it gets, how long the winter chill persists and how high the price of oil goes.
“So much of it is just unfortunately out of our hands,” Smith said. “If I could open up the Strait of Hormuz right now, I most certainly would.”
What she can do is look for extra income and pare back spending. Smith works full-time as a technical writer, but she said she’s thinking about picking up a second job to help pay the bills. She also recently canceled plans to go to Mexico for a good friend’s wedding.
“Obviously I want to support my friend who’s getting married,” she said. But these are “unprecedented times and unfortunately cuts are going to have to be made.”
Elsewhere in the state, Northborough resident Ann Killion is also anxious about the cost of heating oil. She’s 67, and works at a nonprofit that helps children and families receiving mental healthcare. Historically, she’s made just a little too much money to qualify for heating assistance, but not enough to live comfortably, she said.
As she spoke, she pulled a thick blanket tighter around her shoulders. She’s trying not to turn on her heat until she absolutely has to.
“I always feel like I’m one step behind. And it’s like, what bill am I going to pay first? My electric? My heating?” she said.
Add to that the price of groceries and gas, which have also gone up recently.
“I don’t know how people do this,” she said. “I mean, I don’t know how I’m going to do it.”
In Milton, Avi Khanna and his wife are trying to figure that out, too. They haven’t had to fill their oil tank yet this season, but they know what’s coming, and they’ve already started budgeting.
He dug out a receipt from a fill he got last January. The cost: $770 for 180 gallons of oil. That same fill today would cost more like $1,100.
Khanna said he feels fortunate that his family won’t have to choose between buying groceries and keeping their house warm, but he knows many others in the state aren’t so lucky.
“We have to be really aware of our older neighbors, or those that might be more income challenged, because there are going to be a lot of very, very difficult decisions that have to be made,” he said.
What a household pays for oil heat over the course of a winter depends on several things such as the size of the home, how well insulated it is and whether the customer can lock in a seasonal price with a supplier. But on average, the federal government predicts oil-heated households will spend just over $2,100 on fuel this winter — up 21% from last winter. That’s even after factoring in predictions for a warmer-than usual winter, which should mean people fill their tanks less frequently.
By contrast, natural gas and electric-heated households in the region are expected to spend $879 and $1,637, respectively. (The cost may be different for residents with an electric heat pump, since they can get a significant discount on their bills through a state program.)
“It’s going to be an expensive winter. There’s no question about it,” said Michael Ferrante, president of the Massachusetts Energy Marketers Association, an industry group for heating oil and propane suppliers. “We are in a worldwide energy crisis.”
Ferrante’s group represents large and small heating oil companies. All of them are anxious about this winter, he said. The margins in this business are thin. Plus, they see the angst high prices cause for their customers.
“They are spending literally hours and hours doing customer service relations — the phones are ringing off the hook,” he said.
To blunt the pain of high oil prices, Massachusetts is kicking in extra money to help residents. Last month, Gov. Maura Healey announced the state would contribute $15 million to the Home Energy Assistance Program, or HEAP, the federally-funded fuel assistance program more commonly referred to as LIHEAP.
Healey — who is running for reelection and frequently blames President Trump and the decision to go to war with Iran for high energy prices — also said she was establishing a new home heating benefit for middle-income oil users. With $34 million in funding, her administration expects to help 50,000 households that previously would not qualify for assistance.
“I thought it was important to increase eligibility to a broader number of households because everybody is getting hurt by what this war is costing us,” she said when announcing the plan.
While this extra combined $49 million of assistance comes on top of the money the state gets from the federal government, many fear it won’t be enough.
“The heating oil situation is grim,” said Mark Wolfe, an energy economist and executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, a group that works with state agencies that administer LIHEAP money to low-income residents. “We’re concerned more families will fall behind this winter on their bills.”
Wolfe said states remain uncertain on what this season’s LIHEAP budget will be. Congress has yet to pass an appropriations bill, and in the meantime, the program is being funded at the same level as last winter.
“Because the cost of heating oil has become so expensive, states will run out of money much faster than they would have normally because people need far more help,” Wolfe said.
In July, his group asked Congress to allocate an extra $3 billion to LIHEAP, which would nearly double the program’s budget. Healey sent a similar request last month.
According to the Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities, Massachusetts has received $142 million for heating assistance so far this year, though more is expected late in the season. Last year, the state received a total of $163 million for the program and helped 156,000 households.
Heating assistance is distributed in Massachusetts through a network of community action agencies. The offices are always busy at this time of year with people inquiring about heating assistance, but already this season feels different, said Andrea Mendoza, director of energy services at the nonprofit ABCD and co-chair of the Mass Energy Directors Association.
“The need is so great that we’re seeing these escalated numbers of folks reaching out,” she said.
Across the state, first time applications for HEAP are up 53% over last year, she said. And so far, the state has received 16,000 applications for the middle-income oil heat assistance program.
With the winter heating season officially underway, oil customers are facing a world of uncertainty. No one knows how high prices will go, and online forums are filled with people asking if it makes sense to fill their tanks now or wait, or saying they’re trying to hold out as long as possible before turning on the heat.
But one thing is clear, Wolfe said: Even if the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars end soon, which seems unlikely, it could still be months before oil prices fall in a meaningful way. That’s in part because a lot of oil refining capacity has been damaged in the conflicts.
“There’s a joke — if you can think of anything funny in oil — that prices go up like a rocket, come down like a feather,” he said.
So for now, residents like Smith and her roommates in Somerville have their fingers crossed that predictions for a mild winter will pan out.
“I just really keep hoping that the meteorologists are right,” Smith said, “and that with the super El Niño, it’s just really going to be a warm winter.”