As an investigation of utility bill cost drivers gets underway, state government has projected that about three-quarters of Massachusetts homes could spend between 4% and 9% less than last year on heating this winter.
The combination of a “slightly milder” winter and the expectation of lower fuel costs spells good news for natural gas, heating oil and propane customers at a time when utility expenses are top of mind for residents. But the Department of Energy Resources’s household heating costs estimate envisions a cost increase of about 6% for homes that use electric baseboard heating due to higher electricity prices this winter.
“Although heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices are expected to be lower compared to last year, many households will still spend more overall because extended periods of cold weather lead to more heating use,” DOER cautioned in its winter heating forecast. “For example, last winter was colder than initially forecasted, which contributed to higher heating bills.”
The forecast was published in November and colder weather since then will influence actual heating bills.
Natural gas is the most common heating fuel in Massachusetts, serving about half of all homes. Retail gas rates are approved by the Department of Public Utilities for each heating season beginning Nov. 1. Based on the utilities’ rate filings, DOER said it expects retail natural gas prices to average about $2.03 per therm this winter, down from $2.24 last year.
The average home heated by natural gas is estimated to consume 435 therms for space heating, DOER said, putting the average estimated cost for heating this winter at $883, down 9.3% from last winter.
Heating oil keeps about 20% of Massachusetts homes warm in the winter, especially older homes and those in rural areas. DOER estimated that retail heating oil in Massachusetts will average $3.10 per gallon this winter, down from $3.43 per gallon a year ago. As a result, the average household using heating oil can expect winter bills to total about $1,103 — about 8% or $102 lower than last year, DOER said.
The 4% of homes that heat with propane also stand to see lower costs this winter based on a projected average price of $3.17 per gallon compared to $3.33 per gallon last winter, DOER said. The average propane-heated household can expect winter bills to be about $1,412 — 4% or $51 lower than last year, the department said.
For the roughly 20% of homes that heat with electricity, DOER estimated a winter heating expenditure of $898. That’s up 6.4% from last winter in part due to DOER’s expectation that the statewide average electric utility rate will be about 35 cents per kilowatt-hour compared to last year’s rate of 33 cents.
High energy prices and recent volatility have exacerbated chronic cost-of-living pressures for Bay State residents and businesses that already pay some of the highest energy prices in the country. The issue has also called attention to the state clean energy and climate mandates that some say are driving elevated costs.
The DPU in mid-December opened an investigation of all delivery charges on electric and gas bills in Massachusetts, laying out a goal to “examine the causes of bill volatility and promote a greater understanding of rates for customers to take greater control over their energy bills.” It’s a review that Gov. Maura Healey asked for nine weeks earlier when she said the state must “act with just incredible urgency to do everything we can to lower costs.”
The first phase of the investigation is focused on a review of charges and fees, but the DPU said a second phase will zero in on making it easier for ratepayers to understand what they are being charged for and why.
“The complexity of current utility bills … increases customer confusion and mistrust and may reduce customers’ sense of empowerment to reduce their energy bills by changing how they use energy,” DPU commissioners said, add that the department “frequently” hears such complaints from ratepayers.
Former Boston Red Sox player and broadcaster Lou Merloni took to the X platform Monday evening to lodge his own complaint: “What the hell is going on with Gas bills? 2/3’s of my bill is ….I don’t know what. Can’t wait for January’s. Holy Healey!!!”
Others have shared their thoughts directly with the DPU as part of its formal investigation. A resident of Granby, Timothy Wright, told commissioners that he has serious concerns about dramatically-increasing delivery charges as well as “the increasing complexity of our utility bill.”
“Our most recent National Grid bill includes approximately ten separate delivery-related line items, which makes it nearly impossible for the average consumer to understand what we are actually paying for and why costs are increasing so rapidly. Transparency is essential for trust, and right now, the billing structure feels confusing, opaque, and discouraging,” Wright wrote to the DPU.
The DPU got its first feedback from a ratepayer the day after it launched its investigation. A person identified only as Nelson T. said they spent $6,000 on gas and electricity in 2025, compared to $3,000 a few years ago, and that it’s pushed them to consider leaving the state.
“My pay increase isnt keeping up with expenses. I have reached the point that I am ready to move out of this state. My kids will graduate with student debt, how can the [sic] ever afford to pay down the debt and save money with the crazy cost of utilities added on to their monthly cost,” the person wrote in an email. “I never taught [sic] I would ever say I would move out of MA. This is the state I grew up in and my kids also. But the cost to reside in MA has gone through the roof.”
On Wednesday, groups including the Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities, MASSCAP, Action for Boston Community Development and others will hold a briefing to raise awareness of the state’s Home Energy Assistance Program. Funded by EOHLC and administered by a network of 20 community organizations, the HEAP program includes both heating assistance and energy efficiency and weatherization programs.